Skip to main content

Getting China’s Belt and Road initiative right


Author: Shahar Hameiri, UQ

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has generated an enormous amount of commentary and analysis, leading to significant policy reshuffles around the world. But many still get the BRI wrong.

Labourers walk at Walini tunnel construction site for Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway in West Bandung regency, West Java province, Indonesia, February 21, 2019. Picture taken 21 February, 2019 (Photo: Reuters/Kurniawan).

 

The usual narrative is that China, under the assertive leadership of President Xi Jinping, is using the BRI as part of a coherent strategy to advance its national interests. Many believe that China practises ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ — providing loans to recipients that are incapable of repaying them to increase its influence over recipient governments and even seize strategic assets upon default.

In our report, Lee Jones and I argue that China’s BRI is not a carefully designed plan, and that debt-trap diplomacy is a myth. There are three serious misconceptions about the BRI. The first misconception is that the BRI is motivated by geopolitical objectives. Despite some posturing, the BRI is an attempt to address China’s own economic challenges.

China’s long-term growth model — debt-fuelled infrastructure investment and surpluses from export-oriented industrialisation allowing the cycle to repeat — is failing. Subnational governments’ duplication of industry and infrastructure, massive infrastructure spending after the global financial crisis, and declining demand for Chinese exports have created significant overcapacity and indebtedness. The BRI is intended to stimulate external demand for Chinese goods, services and capital. Approved projects do not necessarily correspond to the six ‘corridors’ outlined in BRI policy documents, and Chinese investments in developed non-BRI countries are growing faster than in BRI countries.

The second misconception is that China’s development financing system executes top leaders’ commands seamlessly. This perception is understandable given China’s opaque and authoritarian political system and governance structures. In reality, China’s development financing institutions are fragmented and poorly coordinated, inhibiting the pursuit of detailed strategic objectives. Top leaders and central agencies attempt to shape the BRI’s overall direction through often vague policy statements and broad commitments to particular countries or regions.

Detailed implementation is left to other agencies that often operate with considerable latitude. The most important of these are the hundreds of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that implement BRI projects. Although notionally under party-state control, central agencies struggle to regulate SOEs’ conduct abroad and they often flout Chinese regulations. They tend to pursue profits and attempt to harness the BRI to grow their market share or secure future revenue streams. They also compete ferociously for projects and engage in behaviours that have caused blowback for Chinese diplomacy. This loose system and SOEs’ global market inexperience have facilitated many poorly conceived overseas projects.

The third misconception is that China dictates the BRI to recipients. Much commentary on the BRI either ignores the recipients’ agency or treats them as dupes. But recipient countries play a critical role in shaping the BRI. Rather than unfolding from a Chinese blueprint, the BRI emerges piecemeal through diverse bilateral interactions between Chinese agencies and recipient countries.

Sri Lanka and Malaysia are often portrayed as victims of China’s debt-trap diplomacy. This thesis does not stack up. The most controversial projects in these states were initiated by the recipient governments in pursuit of their own domestic agendas. Their debt distress did not arise predominantly from the granting of predatory Chinese loans, but rather from the misconduct of local elites and Western-dominated financial markets. China has not benefited strategically from the upsets in these cases. It has faced negative reactions and pushback, though this rarely amounted to a total rejection of the BRI.

The common narrative about China’s BRI projects in Malaysia is that it was seeking influence over the strategically important Malacca Straits. The debt-trap narrative was further fuelled by claims that Beijing had inflated loans for the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) and two gas pipeline projects in order to bail out the troubled sovereign wealth fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). When the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition surprisingly unseated the long-standing United Malay National Organisation (UMNO) led coalition, it suspended the projects, leading pundits to claim that PH was spearheading an anti-BRI pushback.

The ECRL and pipelines deal was actually proposed by former Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak and his crony Jho Low to cover up their misuse of billions of 1MDB funds for political and personal gain. Their criminal misconduct, which recently landed Najib Razak in jail, was facilitated by Western financiers including Goldman Sachs, not Beijing. The ECRL was not proposed by China but had been part of Malaysian development planning for almost a decade prior to its initiation in 2016.

The Malaysian government never fell into debt distress and there has been no prospect of any asset seizures. It is likely that Chinese authorities agreed to the deal because it seemed to be a low risk way of maintaining relations with a friendly government, given that Malaysia guaranteed the loan and that UMNO had ruled Malaysia since independence. PH’s shock win upended these assumptions. The new government did not cancel the ECRL, but instead negotiated the price down and secured more work for Malaysian construction firms.

Correcting the three misconceptions is critical for better policy engagement with the BRI, avoiding overreaction and improving developmental outcomes for finance recipients. It is possible that the BRI will have significant geopolitical implications, regardless of its current objectives and implementation. Avoiding undesirable developments requires understanding the BRI as it is today and responding accordingly.

Shahar Hameiri is Associate Professor of International Politics in the School of Political Science and International Studies, University of Queensland.

He is author of a recent report with Lee Jones, Debunking the Myth of ‘Debt-trap Diplomacy’, published at Chatham House.

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/09/09/getting-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-right/

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

SSG Commando Muddassir Iqbal of Pakistan Army

“ Commando Muddassir Iqbal was part of the team who conducted Army Public School operation on 16 December 2014. In this video he reveals that he along with other commandos was ordered to kill the innocent children inside school, when asked why should they kill children after killing all the terrorist he was told that it would be a chance to defame Taliban and get nation on the side. He and all other commandos killed children and later Taliban was blamed.
Muddassir Iqbal has deserted the military and now he is  with mujahedeen somewhere in AF PAK border area”
For authenticity of  this tape journalists can easy reach to his home town to interview his family members or   ISPR as he reveals his army service number”
Asalam o Alaikum: My name is Muddassir Iqbal. My father’s name is Naimat Ali. I belong to Sialkot divison (Punjab province), my village is Shamsher Poor and district, tehsil and post office  Narowal. Unfortunately I was working in Pakistan army. I feel embarrassed to tell you …

CPEC Jobs in Pakistan, salary details

JOBS...نوکریاں چائنہ کمپنی میںPlease help the deserving persons...Salary:Salary package in China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in these 300,000 jobs shall be on daily wages. The details of the daily wages are as follows;Welder: Rs. 1,700 dailyHeavy Duty Driver: Rs. 1,700 dailyMason: Rs. 1,500 dailyHelper: Rs. 850 dailyElectrician: Rs. 1,700 dailySurveyor: Rs. 2,500 dailySecurity Guard: Rs. 1,600 dailyBulldozer operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyConcrete mixer machine operator: Rs. 2,000 dailyRoller operator: Rs. 2,000 dailySteel fixer: Rs. 2,200 dailyIron Shuttering fixer: Rs. 1,800 dailyAccount clerk: Rs. 2,200 dailyCarpenter: Rs. 1,700 dailyLight duty driver: Rs. 1,700 dailyLabour: Rs. 900 dailyPara Engine mechanic: Rs. 1,700 dailyPipe fitter: Rs. 1,700 dailyStorekeeper: Rs. 1,700 dailyOffice boy: Rs. 1,200 dailyExcavator operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyShovel operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyComputer operator: Rs. 2,200 dailySecurity Supervisor: Rs. 2,200 dailyCook for Chinese food: Rs. 2,000 dailyCook…

Historical relationship between Kurd and Baloch.

The Kurds are the ethnical group living in a region known as Kurdistan which is divided into Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran. They  are struggling for an independent region since decades and they are famous for their female guerrilla fighters.        On 25 September 2017, the referendum for an independent Kurdish region  was held in Iraq with a turn out of 72 %.   On this important occasion, the historical relation between Kurd and Baloch people is worth discussing.       When it comes to history, every nation tends to find its roots and origin. Same goes with the Baloch people. The Baloch people are always curious  about  finding their roots in history. Even if you  talk to a shepherd in Balochistan, he will be curious to talk about his  tribal or ethnical roots.      The Balochs have always conveyed the history to the next generations in different mediums like poems etc. No Baloch before 20th century had written books on  history  or origin of the Baloch nation .
        Balochs…