CHINA: Countdown to the Two Sessions

TRIVIUM CHINA

Happy Two Sessions week, everybody!

ICYMI: China’s long-delayed government meetings will begin when the political advisory body (CPPCC) kicks off its annual plenary session on Thursday, followed by the national legislature (NPC) on Friday.

The big reveal: Premier Li Keqiang will deliver the Government Work Report on Friday morning – it will lay out key government targets and policy priorities for the rest of the year.

What we’ll be watching for:

GDP growth target
- Will the government set a flexible target, or perhaps even a two-year average target for 2020-2021?
The size and shape of stimulus

Fiscal deficit target – will policymakers breach the long-held redline of 3% of GDP?
Local government bond quota – could it be raised to RMB 4 trillion from the current RMB 2.5 trillion?
Monetary measures – will policymakers signal a significant increase in credit growth going forward?
Consumer vouchers – will the central government give policy guidance to this program that has largely been implemented at the city level?
Property market – any new loosening?

Policy priorities
- We’ll look at language around new infrastructure spending, poverty alleviation, and environmental protection.

Get smart: We’ll have a full rundown of key outcomes for clients once the report is delivered.

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