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CHINA: Countdown to the Two Sessions

TRIVIUM CHINA


Happy Two Sessions week, everybody!

ICYMI: China’s long-delayed government meetings will begin when the political advisory body (CPPCC) kicks off its annual plenary session on Thursday, followed by the national legislature (NPC) on Friday.

The big reveal: Premier Li Keqiang will deliver the Government Work Report on Friday morning – it will lay out key government targets and policy priorities for the rest of the year.

What we’ll be watching for:

  • GDP growth target
    • Will the government set a flexible target, or perhaps even a two-year average target for 2020-2021?
  • The size and shape of stimulus
    • Fiscal deficit target – will policymakers breach the long-held redline of 3% of GDP?
    • Local government bond quota – could it be raised to RMB 4 trillion from the current RMB 2.5 trillion?
    • Monetary measures – will policymakers signal a significant increase in credit growth going forward?
    • Consumer vouchers – will the central government give policy guidance to this program that has largely been implemented at the city level?
    • Property market – any new loosening?
  • Policy priorities
    • We’ll look at language around new infrastructure spending, poverty alleviation, and environmental protection.

    • Get smart: We’ll have a full rundown of key outcomes for clients once the report is delivered.
     

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    Caixin: What to Watch for in China’s Long-Delayed Two Sessions

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