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Showing posts from January 28, 2019

Afghan ‘Peace Plan’ Revealed In Leaked Document

The document suggests that the Afghan parties may invite the international community to form a small, limited “Afghanistan Support Team”. TOLOnews has seen a detailed document that has been prepared as a potential peace agreement between the United States, the Taliban and the Afghan government. US-based research center The RAND Corporation, a non-govt organization, has developed the draft agreement and the document has been shared with several senior Afghan officials and politicians in Kabul as well stakeholders in the region. The 49-page document titled “Agreement on a Comprehensive Settlement of the Conflict in Afghanistan” details proposals regarding a final peace agreement for Afghanistan at the end of a negotiating process. Based on the document, a core bargain involving both the internal and external parties includes a declaration of a ceasefire, Taliban’s complete renunciation of links with the terrorist organizations, complete, phased ending of the current US and NATO mili

CHINA:  Party Watch Weekly Report

 Party Watch Weekly Report 2|15 1.19.2019-1.25.2019 By David Gitter, Julia Bowie, Brock Erdahl, James Gannon, Ann Listerud, and Sandy Lu Highlights Provincial and ministerial-level cadres were required to attend a “special seminar” on preventing and dispelling major risks in the face of new external and internal challenges (see Senior Leaders section).Xi Jinping delivered a speech at a Politburo meeting this week about promoting media integration in order to consolidate a common ideological base for the whole nation (see Propaganda Work section).The Central Commission for Comprehensively Deepening Reform held a meeting in Beijing (see Comprehensively Deepening Reform section). Senior Leaders Xi Jinping: Improve Capability to Prevent and Control, Strive to Prevent and Dispel Major Risks, and Maintain the Health and Sustainability of Economic Development and the Comprehensive Stability of Society Xinhua   1.21  Xi Jinping spoke at a “special seminar” for provincial and minister

Automation is the biggest challenge to the Belt and Road Initiative - Wake Up Call

Japanese scholars in the 1960s were the first to coin the term “flying geese” to describe patterns of industry transfer. The theory posits that “one economy, like the first goose in a V-shaped formation, can lead other economies toward industrialization, passing older technologies down to the followers as its own incomes rise and it moves into newer technologies.” In essence, this theory implies that global investors will locate their manufacturing operations in countries which offer the lowest manufacturing wage costs. However, as the manufacturing sector grows in the selected countries and sucks in more labor, the wages would rise. Beyond a certain threshold, the country would lose its low cost wage competitive advantage and manufacturing operations would be transferred to the next country with lower manufacturing wages, while the country of origin would move up the value chain to higher skill industries. Source: How the world has grown Over the last 70 years th

This week’s top Belt and Road news

Source: Belt and Road Advisory Our BRI Briefing summarizes and analyzes key news related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) over the last week.     This week’s top Belt and Road news China’s economy grows at slowest pace in 28 years : China’s economy grew at 6.6% in 2018, the slowest pace in 28 years. However, the increase in output was still more than all the goods and services produced in #Australia in 2017.   China and Germany lock in further financial services cooperation : The second China-Germany High-Level Financial Dialogue included a deal to develop the offshore Chinese yuan market in Frankfurt and an agreement to deepen coordination between Chinese and German banks   China offers US 6 year boost to imports: During talks in January,  China  has offered a six-year boost in imports during its ongoing talks with the U.S. to eliminate the trade deficit by 2024. The timing is no coincidence – it would coincide with the end of a potential Trump second term     Trade v

Xi stresses political purity

TRIVIUM CHINA The Politburo met on Friday  and reviewed four documents. First was a report by the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) on the reports it had recently heard by the Party groups at the State Council, legislature, supreme court, supreme procuratorate, political advisory body, and the Central Committee’s secretariat (see January 8 Tip Sheet). Why that matters : It’s a reminder of how Xi has asserted the authority of the Party over the state. The second document was on strengthening the Party’s political work . Xi wants obedient believers ( “Guaranteeing that the entire Party obeys the Center…is the primary political task.”  “[We] must be resolute in our political beliefs…and purify the political environment.” Third   was a document on the rules for asking instructions from the Center. Why that matters:  The policy transmission and implementation mechanisms do not always work. Top leaders want to fix that. Finally, the meeting reviewed a revised document on