Skip to main content

Clingendael Institute: Silk Road Headlines

Some institutions utilize big data to predict trends, e.g. global wealth and power. The Lowy Institute Asia-Power Index provides insight on the influence of 25 countries in Asia. An interesting observation is that China might be less dependent on the international market in the mid-long run, given the fact that its middle-class (read: Gross National Income) will grow until 2030. Yet, its demography might become a challenge, since the workforce might decline with around 158 million. This might be attributed to a growing number of elderly workers (people over 60). Also, the presence of the People's Liberation Army in BRI-countries is not always welcomed with open arms [Five big takeaways from the 2019 Asia Power Index]. All in all, steps are being taken to transform the Chinese economy from a producing market into a consuming one, similar to that of the United States.

Analysts assume that the Sino-US trade war will have a cascading effect on the global arena. The scenarios are straightforward and well summarized. An escalating trade war would impact foreign exchange markets through multiple channels: shifting trade flows, as well as expectations on growth and monetary policy. Basically, this means that multinationals need to rethink their supply-chain in order to produce goods at a cost-effective price, which will affect GDP and inflation rates in the countries involved [A $600 Billion Bill: Counting the Global Cost of the U.S.-China Trade War]. Essentially, the trade war could also delay the internationalization of the Yuan in the long run.

An intriguing consideration is the power play between BRI and the financial market in general, which is highlighted in the second half of the article [Making a multilateral Belt and Road]. How much is China willing to give up on (or sacrifice) national interests to safeguard the growth of BRI through the usage of (foreign) investors? It all depends on the goal of the affiliated institutions (AIIB and SCO - Shanghai Cooperation Organization) and that of the BRI itself. It seems that certain institutions are acquiring a more multilateral character, which is beneficial for the region, ergo, the influence of China. This might provide a healthy investment climate, by setting up clear rules for mitigating the involved risks, but also to commit to the UN SDG goals in order to realize long-term growth and tackle environmental issues. However, it is not yet clear how the Chinese taxpayers will react, if they perceive that their tax money might be squandered. A delicate balancing act, to say the least.

The recent recalibration of the BRI provides enough food for thought. As the BRI matures, so does its string of investment projects/proposals. Yet, its foundation is firm. Currently, BRI is expanding across multiple continents with varying levels of success. Nonetheless, it keeps on growing and is becoming ever more popular. However, as Warren Buffet once stated: 'Bad things aren’t obvious when times are good'.

A. Cikmazkara

This week's Silk Road Headlines

Connecting the dots: Challenges to EU connectivity in Central Asia [ISS]

A Eurasian Central Clearing Bank Is The Next Logical Step For China, Eurasia And The Belt & Road [Silk Road Briefing]

Asia’s shot at global leadership through RCEP [East Asia Forum]

Making a multilateral Belt and Road [East Asia Forum]

Five big takeaways from the 2019 Asia Power Index [Lowy Institute

]In Counter To China, India Scores Big Sri Lanka Port Deal With Japan [NDTV]

At the Dawn of Belt and Road: China in the Developing World [RAND]

A $600 Billion Bill: Counting the Global Cost of the U.S.-China Trade War [Bloomberg]

New report on the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative predicts boost to global GDP “by over $7 trillion per annum” [CIOB

China’s Middle East Model [CSIS]

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

SSG Commando Muddassir Iqbal of Pakistan Army

“ Commando Muddassir Iqbal was part of the team who conducted Army Public School operation on 16 December 2014. In this video he reveals that he along with other commandos was ordered to kill the innocent children inside school, when asked why should they kill children after killing all the terrorist he was told that it would be a chance to defame Taliban and get nation on the side. He and all other commandos killed children and later Taliban was blamed.
Muddassir Iqbal has deserted the military and now he is  with mujahedeen somewhere in AF PAK border area”
For authenticity of  this tape journalists can easy reach to his home town to interview his family members or   ISPR as he reveals his army service number”
Asalam o Alaikum: My name is Muddassir Iqbal. My father’s name is Naimat Ali. I belong to Sialkot divison (Punjab province), my village is Shamsher Poor and district, tehsil and post office  Narowal. Unfortunately I was working in Pakistan army. I feel embarrassed to tell you …

CPEC Jobs in Pakistan, salary details

JOBS...نوکریاں چائنہ کمپنی میںPlease help the deserving persons...Salary:Salary package in China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in these 300,000 jobs shall be on daily wages. The details of the daily wages are as follows;Welder: Rs. 1,700 dailyHeavy Duty Driver: Rs. 1,700 dailyMason: Rs. 1,500 dailyHelper: Rs. 850 dailyElectrician: Rs. 1,700 dailySurveyor: Rs. 2,500 dailySecurity Guard: Rs. 1,600 dailyBulldozer operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyConcrete mixer machine operator: Rs. 2,000 dailyRoller operator: Rs. 2,000 dailySteel fixer: Rs. 2,200 dailyIron Shuttering fixer: Rs. 1,800 dailyAccount clerk: Rs. 2,200 dailyCarpenter: Rs. 1,700 dailyLight duty driver: Rs. 1,700 dailyLabour: Rs. 900 dailyPara Engine mechanic: Rs. 1,700 dailyPipe fitter: Rs. 1,700 dailyStorekeeper: Rs. 1,700 dailyOffice boy: Rs. 1,200 dailyExcavator operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyShovel operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyComputer operator: Rs. 2,200 dailySecurity Supervisor: Rs. 2,200 dailyCook for Chinese food: Rs. 2,000 dailyCook…

The Rise of China-Europe Railways

https://www.csis.org/analysis/rise-china-europe-railways

The Rise of China-Europe RailwaysMarch 6, 2018The Dawn of a New Commercial Era?For over two millennia, technology and politics have shaped trade across the Eurasian supercontinent. The compass and domesticated camels helped the “silk routes” emerge between 200 and 400 CE, and peaceful interactions between the Han and Hellenic empires allowed overland trade to flourish. A major shift occurred in the late fifteenth century, when the invention of large ocean-going vessels and new navigation methods made maritime trade more competitive. Mercantilism and competition among Europe’s colonial powers helped pull commerce to the coastlines. Since then, commerce between Asia and Europe has traveled primarily by sea.1Against this historical backdrop, new railway services between China and Europe have emerged rapidly. Just 10 years ago, regular direct freight services from China to Europe did not exist.2 Today, they connect roughly 35 Chinese…