Skip to main content

Pakistan to pay China $40b on $26.5b CPEC investments in 20 years

By Shahbaz Rana

Published: December 26, 2018


ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will pay $40 billion to China in 20 years in shape of repayments of debt and dividends on a $26.5 billion investment under flagship China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), documents of the Ministry of Planning and Development reveal.

Out of $39.83 billion – to be precise – the debt repayments of energy and infrastructure projects amount to $28.43 billion. The rest of $11.4 billion will be paid in shape of dividends to the investors, showed the official estimates.

The figures are significantly lower than the projections made by some private institutions, primarily because the outflows have been worked out on the basis of only $26.5 billion investment.

Pakistan, China agree to cast CPEC net wider

This suggests that unlike the claims of $50 billion to $62 billion CPEC investment, the actual investment likely to remain half of the initially announced investment figures.

The only major project that can materialise in the next few years is $8.2 billion Mainline-I Project of Pakistan Railways. The mainline project cost has not been included in these estimates.

The Ministry of Finance has also shared these estimates with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last month, confirmed a government spokesman on CPEC affairs. The country on an average will return $2 billion per annum to China.

These are the first comprehensive estimates of inflows that are based on under implementation projects and the outflows have been estimated on account of debt servicing of energy and infrastructure projects and dividends payments of power plants. CPEC portfolio currently comprises energy projects, being setup by private investors, and infrastructure schemes undertaken by the government.

The government loans of $5.9 billion have been signed at an interest rate ranging from 2% to as high as 5.2%. There are three government loans totaling $774 million that have been obtained at 5.2% rate.

The commercial loans for setting up power plants have been arranged at an interest rate of London Interbank Offered (Libor) plus 4.5%. However, it is the return on equity, which in some cases is as high as 34.2%, that will cause outflow of $11.3 billion.

CPEC inflows of the existing under implementation projects will dry in 2022-23 when the country will receive $26.5 billion, according to the Planning Ministry’s working. On the basis of these inflows, Pakistani authorities have estimated that the country will return $39.83 billion to Chinese firms.

A Flourish data visualisation

“CPEC projects inflows will continue till 2030 on account of energy, infrastructure projects that will be based on pragmatic planning on their economic outlook and socio economic, agriculture and Gwadar projects,” said Hasan Daud Butt, official spokesman on CPEC affairs.

To a question, Hasan Daud said both the inflows and outflows have been prepared as per actual investment and are based on projects that are under implementations. He said the Planning Ministry has shared these estimates with the Ministry of Finance and they discussed it with the IMF.

The IMF and the United States have expressed concerns over CPEC debt without acknowledging the benefits of the investment that helped remove infrastructure and energy sector bottlenecks.

However, Pakistan can only sustain these repayments by enhancing its exports. In case the country still remains unable to increase exports despite removal of energy bottlenecks, it will be difficult to manage these repayments.

Assuming that Pakistan-IMF three-year relation will begin from fiscal year 2019-20, the country will repay $4.2 billion to China during this period on account of debt and dividend payments.

In the next fiscal year, Pakistan will return $1 billion to China that will reach to $1.9 billion during the last year of the IMF programme. The CPEC repayments will peak to $3.23 billion in 2025-26 and from that year it will start reducing and ending at $306 million in 2037-38, according to the documents.

Total inflows

The official statistics showed that CPEC inflows on account of 18 energy projects and 5 infrastructure projects that began in 2014-15 would end in 2022-23. Till last fiscal year, Pakistan has already received $11 billion worth of CPEC inflows.

For the current fiscal year, CPEC inflows have been estimated at $4.2 billion –which is the peak of the inflows. During the next four years, the inflows will amount to $4 billion, $3.73 billion, $2.53 billion and $1 billion in 2022-23.

Energy outflows

CPEC energy projects outflows have begun from this fiscal year that will continue till 2037-38. Against $2.4 billion Chinese investment in Kohala hydropower project, Pakistan will return $2.3 billion in loans and another $2 billion in dividend payments.

A Flourish data visualisation

Pakistan will get $1.7 billion Chinese loan for Karot hydropower project and payback $2.1 billion in loan and another $700 million in dividend in 20 years. Against $1.7 billion Chinese investment in Suki Kinari power project, the country will return $2.1 billion in loan and $1.94 billion in dividends.

The Port Qasim hydropower project is established at a cost of $2.1 billion and the repayment of debt will amount to $2.1 billion in addition to $1.73 billion on account of dividends. The Sahiwal power plant, setup with an investment of $1.8 billion, will cause $2.14 billion debt repayment and $1.37 billion in dividends.

Against an investment of $2 billion in Hubco power plant, Pakistan will pay $1.8 billion in loan and another $1.5 billion in dividends to the investors. The Engro power generation project, being setup with $1.1 billion investment, will result into $770 million in loan repayment and $407 million in dividends.

The Gwadar power project to be setup at a cost of $435 million will lead to debt repayment of $368 million and $417 million in dividend payments. The Thar electricity power plant is being setup with $1.64 billion Chinese investment.

CPEC to help improve labour force in Pakistan: Mazari

The country will return $1.64 billion in loan and $749 million in dividend. In addition to that, five clean energy projects are being setup at a cost of $1.1 billion and their debt and dividend payments are far higher than the cost.

Infrastructure projects

Against a loan of $5.9 billion for five infrastructure projects, Pakistan will return $7.5 billion to the Chinese government over a period of 20 years. Against a loan of $1.3 billion for Karakoram Highway phase-II project, Pakistan will pay back $1.63 billion.

This is inclusive of $164.4 million debt that has been contracted at 5.2% rate. China has given a $2.8 billion loan for Sukkur-Multan motorway and the country will return $3.6 billion in 20 years. This loan also has an expensive component of $361.2 million that has been contracted at 5.2% rate.

A Flourish data visualisation

For Orange Line metro project, the country received $1.6 billion loan including $203.3 million at 5.2% interest rate. It will return nearly $2 billion loan over a period of 20 years.


Popular posts from this blog

SSG Commando Muddassir Iqbal of Pakistan Army

“ Commando Muddassir Iqbal was part of the team who conducted Army Public School operation on 16 December 2014. In this video he reveals that he along with other commandos was ordered to kill the innocent children inside school, when asked why should they kill children after killing all the terrorist he was told that it would be a chance to defame Taliban and get nation on the side. He and all other commandos killed children and later Taliban was blamed.
Muddassir Iqbal has deserted the military and now he is  with mujahedeen somewhere in AF PAK border area”
For authenticity of  this tape journalists can easy reach to his home town to interview his family members or   ISPR as he reveals his army service number”
Asalam o Alaikum: My name is Muddassir Iqbal. My father’s name is Naimat Ali. I belong to Sialkot divison (Punjab province), my village is Shamsher Poor and district, tehsil and post office  Narowal. Unfortunately I was working in Pakistan army. I feel embarrassed to tell you …

CPEC Jobs in Pakistan, salary details

JOBS...نوکریاں چائنہ کمپنی میںPlease help the deserving persons...Salary:Salary package in China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in these 300,000 jobs shall be on daily wages. The details of the daily wages are as follows;Welder: Rs. 1,700 dailyHeavy Duty Driver: Rs. 1,700 dailyMason: Rs. 1,500 dailyHelper: Rs. 850 dailyElectrician: Rs. 1,700 dailySurveyor: Rs. 2,500 dailySecurity Guard: Rs. 1,600 dailyBulldozer operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyConcrete mixer machine operator: Rs. 2,000 dailyRoller operator: Rs. 2,000 dailySteel fixer: Rs. 2,200 dailyIron Shuttering fixer: Rs. 1,800 dailyAccount clerk: Rs. 2,200 dailyCarpenter: Rs. 1,700 dailyLight duty driver: Rs. 1,700 dailyLabour: Rs. 900 dailyPara Engine mechanic: Rs. 1,700 dailyPipe fitter: Rs. 1,700 dailyStorekeeper: Rs. 1,700 dailyOffice boy: Rs. 1,200 dailyExcavator operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyShovel operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyComputer operator: Rs. 2,200 dailySecurity Supervisor: Rs. 2,200 dailyCook for Chinese food: Rs. 2,000 dailyCook…

The Rise of China-Europe Railways

The Rise of China-Europe RailwaysMarch 6, 2018The Dawn of a New Commercial Era?For over two millennia, technology and politics have shaped trade across the Eurasian supercontinent. The compass and domesticated camels helped the “silk routes” emerge between 200 and 400 CE, and peaceful interactions between the Han and Hellenic empires allowed overland trade to flourish. A major shift occurred in the late fifteenth century, when the invention of large ocean-going vessels and new navigation methods made maritime trade more competitive. Mercantilism and competition among Europe’s colonial powers helped pull commerce to the coastlines. Since then, commerce between Asia and Europe has traveled primarily by sea.1Against this historical backdrop, new railway services between China and Europe have emerged rapidly. Just 10 years ago, regular direct freight services from China to Europe did not exist.2 Today, they connect roughly 35 Chinese…