Skip to main content

China Will Lose The South China Sea Game



Panos Mourdoukoutas ,  

CONTRIBUTOR

 

(Photo by NOEL CELIS / AFP) (Photo credit should read NOEL CELIS/AFP/Getty Images)

China wants to control the entire South China Sea. Every inch of it. That’s why will lose all of it, one day.

In the South China Sea game, China is one player playing against all the rest: The Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam. China is also playing against the navies of US, Japan, France, the UK, and Australia. These navies seek to enforce the freedom of navigation in the vast trade waterway. Close to $5 trillion in merchandise moves through every year.

Why is China playing against everyone else? For a couple of reasons. One of them is that the waterway is very important to its vision -- becoming the next global economic leader.

It’s the beginning of China’s maritime silk road.

“Insofar as China is concerned, its maritime silk road begins from the South China Sea,” says Vijay Eswaran, Malaysian entrepreneur and Chairman of QI Group of Companies.“It sees itself playing a more significant role in maritime trade in the future.”

Another reason is that China sees the South China Sea as its own property. “Historically, China has always viewed the South China Sea (SCS) as its own,“ adds Vijay. All of it, and the resources that are hidden beneath, which China wants to exploit. That’s why it is building artificial islands.

 

And that feeds Chinese nationalism, needed to support and reinforce the political status quo.

What about the overlapping claims from neighboring countries?  “China does not see any of the other overlapping claims from the neighboring countries to the South China Sea as a threat,” adds Vijay.

And it uses intimidation to make sure that this won’t happen. When China lost a United Nations-linked tribunal international arbitration to the Philippines on the South China Sea disputes a year and a half ago, Beijing took a couple of steps to make sure that Duterte wouldn't do anything with it.

The first step was to threaten Duterte with war should he dare to enforce the ruling. The second step was to promise a generous investment to help the Philippines deal with its many problems.

And it worked. Duterte quickly flip-flopped, and forgot all about the ruling, as was written in previous pieces here.

More recently, China applied “Duterte's model” to intimidate Vietnam. Last July Vietnam announced that it will stop its oil exploration efforts, following a stark warning by Beijing that it will attack Vietnamese oil and gas bases.

Still, there are multiple navies that are prepared to challenge China’s ambitious mission. “It is the potential Western influence, i.e the US, France and the UK and their navies, that are having more of an impact on Chinese policy in the region.“

Is China prepared to fend off this challenge? It’s hard to say.

What isn’t hard to say is that countries that play a game against all end up losing.

That’s what happened in neighboring Japan in the past, and it could happen to China in the future.

 

Meanwhile, investors in the financial markets of the region should closely watch any developments that will bring China closer to an open confrontation with America and its allies.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2018/07/01/china-will-lose-the-south-china-sea-game/

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The Rise of China-Europe Railways

https://www.csis.org/analysis/rise-china-europe-railways

The Rise of China-Europe RailwaysMarch 6, 2018The Dawn of a New Commercial Era?For over two millennia, technology and politics have shaped trade across the Eurasian supercontinent. The compass and domesticated camels helped the “silk routes” emerge between 200 and 400 CE, and peaceful interactions between the Han and Hellenic empires allowed overland trade to flourish. A major shift occurred in the late fifteenth century, when the invention of large ocean-going vessels and new navigation methods made maritime trade more competitive. Mercantilism and competition among Europe’s colonial powers helped pull commerce to the coastlines. Since then, commerce between Asia and Europe has traveled primarily by sea.1Against this historical backdrop, new railway services between China and Europe have emerged rapidly. Just 10 years ago, regular direct freight services from China to Europe did not exist.2 Today, they connect roughly 35 Chinese…

SSG Commando Muddassir Iqbal of Pakistan Army

“ Commando Muddassir Iqbal was part of the team who conducted Army Public School operation on 16 December 2014. In this video he reveals that he along with other commandos was ordered to kill the innocent children inside school, when asked why should they kill children after killing all the terrorist he was told that it would be a chance to defame Taliban and get nation on the side. He and all other commandos killed children and later Taliban was blamed.
Muddassir Iqbal has deserted the military and now he is  with mujahedeen somewhere in AF PAK border area”
For authenticity of  this tape journalists can easy reach to his home town to interview his family members or   ISPR as he reveals his army service number”
Asalam o Alaikum: My name is Muddassir Iqbal. My father’s name is Naimat Ali. I belong to Sialkot divison (Punjab province), my village is Shamsher Poor and district, tehsil and post office  Narowal. Unfortunately I was working in Pakistan army. I feel embarrassed to tell you …

CPEC Jobs in Pakistan, salary details

JOBS...نوکریاں چائنہ کمپنی میںPlease help the deserving persons...Salary:Salary package in China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in these 300,000 jobs shall be on daily wages. The details of the daily wages are as follows;Welder: Rs. 1,700 dailyHeavy Duty Driver: Rs. 1,700 dailyMason: Rs. 1,500 dailyHelper: Rs. 850 dailyElectrician: Rs. 1,700 dailySurveyor: Rs. 2,500 dailySecurity Guard: Rs. 1,600 dailyBulldozer operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyConcrete mixer machine operator: Rs. 2,000 dailyRoller operator: Rs. 2,000 dailySteel fixer: Rs. 2,200 dailyIron Shuttering fixer: Rs. 1,800 dailyAccount clerk: Rs. 2,200 dailyCarpenter: Rs. 1,700 dailyLight duty driver: Rs. 1,700 dailyLabour: Rs. 900 dailyPara Engine mechanic: Rs. 1,700 dailyPipe fitter: Rs. 1,700 dailyStorekeeper: Rs. 1,700 dailyOffice boy: Rs. 1,200 dailyExcavator operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyShovel operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyComputer operator: Rs. 2,200 dailySecurity Supervisor: Rs. 2,200 dailyCook for Chinese food: Rs. 2,000 dailyCook…