Skip to main content

Chatham House Experts on the Singapore Summit



Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Head, US and the Americas Programme; Dean, Queen Elizabeth II Academy

   

"Even those most sceptical of President Trump’s foreign policy have given him some credit for persuading China to take sanctions more seriously and getting North Korea to actively engage on the question of denuclearisation.   But agreeing to meet with the leader of North Korea absent a clear negotiating strategy is short-sighted and removes a key bargaining chip (a meeting with the US President) without requiring anything in exchange.  Expert opinion remains skeptical that North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons programme, but the Trump administration does not appear to have a Plan B, one that takes seriously a strategy of deterrence and containment."      

   

Dr John Nilsson-Wright, Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme

   

"For key US allies in East Asia, the Trump-Kim summit raises critical questions about the strength and reliability of the US as a senior partner, and specifically the concern that Trump’s impulsive and inconsistent decision-making pattern may be problematic. Close working level coordination between US, Japanese and ROK cabinet level officials in recent weeks has helped offset some of these concerns, but as Abe’s June 7 visit to Washington highlights, trust is still in limited supply. 

Any deal arising from the summit must not only begin in a credible manner to address the primary concern of denuclearization but also local concerns such as the threat from medium-range missiles, chemical and biological weapons, North Korea’s armed forces, and humanitarian concerns (primarily the fate of Japan’s abductees) all without undermining the core strategic understandings that underpin America’s two bilateral alliances. With North Korea apparently thinking long-term, the worry that the US may be motivated more by short-term immediate political gains ahead of the November mid-terms, is amplifying anxiety in professional circles both in Japan and South Korea."

Dr Patricia Lewis, Research Director, International Security

   

"The hopes for the summit are not new. In 1992, North Korea signed the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. In 1993, the US gave assurances that it would not threaten and use force, including the use of nuclear weapons, nor interfere with North Korea’s internal affairs. In 1994, North Korea undertook to freeze and eventually eliminate its nuclear facilities in exchange for economic and diplomatic relations with the US. However, in 2003, North Korea announced its immediate withdrawal from the NPT, restarted its nuclear reactor, reprocessed the plutonium and rebooted its missile testing programme, and in 2006 conducted the first of six nuclear warhead tests.

   

The attempts to prevent a nuclear-armed North Korea is a history of repeated attempts, broken promises and dashed hopes. The motivation behind the Kim Jong-un’s desire for a summit and the pre-summit announcements indicating a willingness to abolish North Korea’s advanced nuclear weapons capability are unclear.  It is possible that – this time – Kim Jong-un will prove to be a different kind of leader and it is also possible that – this time – the promises to disarm will result in a more secure Korean peninsula but it would be wise to remember the history and build in balanced expectations for the summit and checks on commitments going forward."

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Balochistan to establish first medical university

https://www.dawn.com/news/1366135

The Newspaper's Staff CorrespondentOctober 25, 2017QUETTA: The provincial cabinet on Tuesday approved the draft for establishing a medical university in Balochistan.Health minister Mir Rehmat Saleh Baloch made the announcement while speaking at a press conference after a cabinet meeting.“The cabinet has approved the draft of the medical university which would be presented in the current session of the Balochistan Assembly,” he said, adding with the assembly’s approval the Bolan Medical College would be converted into a medical university.Published in Dawn, October 25th, 2017

CPEC Jobs in Pakistan, salary details

JOBS...نوکریاں چائنہ کمپنی میںPlease help the deserving persons...Salary:Salary package in China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in these 300,000 jobs shall be on daily wages. The details of the daily wages are as follows;Welder: Rs. 1,700 dailyHeavy Duty Driver: Rs. 1,700 dailyMason: Rs. 1,500 dailyHelper: Rs. 850 dailyElectrician: Rs. 1,700 dailySurveyor: Rs. 2,500 dailySecurity Guard: Rs. 1,600 dailyBulldozer operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyConcrete mixer machine operator: Rs. 2,000 dailyRoller operator: Rs. 2,000 dailySteel fixer: Rs. 2,200 dailyIron Shuttering fixer: Rs. 1,800 dailyAccount clerk: Rs. 2,200 dailyCarpenter: Rs. 1,700 dailyLight duty driver: Rs. 1,700 dailyLabour: Rs. 900 dailyPara Engine mechanic: Rs. 1,700 dailyPipe fitter: Rs. 1,700 dailyStorekeeper: Rs. 1,700 dailyOffice boy: Rs. 1,200 dailyExcavator operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyShovel operator: Rs. 2,200 dailyComputer operator: Rs. 2,200 dailySecurity Supervisor: Rs. 2,200 dailyCook for Chinese food: Rs. 2,000 dailyCook…

Germany’s Siemens sets up Belt and Road office in Beijing

https://gbtimes.com/germanys-siemens-sets-up-belt-and-road-office-in-beijing
Germany’s Siemens sets up Belt and Road office in Beijingby Janne Suokas Mar 23, 2018 15:20 TRADEINVESTMENTBELT AND ROAD INITIATIVEGerman industrial and engineering group Siemens will set up a Belt and Road office in Beijing. surberFlickrCC BY 2.0
German industrial and engineering group Siemens will set up an office in Beijing to boost international cooperation under China’s Belt and Road initiative, the company said on Friday.The move will help strengthen Siemens’ cooperation with Chinese and international companies and expand business opportunities brought about by the Belt and Road initiative, according to the company’s statement.The Belt and Road initiative is China’s ambitious project to boost trade and infrastructure investment in more than 65 countries along the ancient Silk Road trade routes from Asia to Europe and Africa.Siemens said it had already partnered with hundreds of Chinese companies in overse…