Naveed Aman Khan
Trump’s enunciated Pak- Afghan policy and strategy was really a disguised declaration of American hybrid war on CPEC.America is not just going to wage proxy on this gigantic project via an intensification of war on Afghanistan, as that’s in and of itself insufficient for accomplishing American grand strategic objectives against CPEC. It’s indeed to the American interests that it wipes out the Taliban presence along Pak- Afghan border and replaces it with Indian RAW- backed terrorist groups such as ISIS, but the trouble that this would cause for Pakistan would not be enough to influence, disrupt and ultimately capture control of CPEC. What’s needed is a comprehensive strategy which applies all elements of American power including diplomatic, economic, and media ones.
America has shown its hand and indicated that it is once again reviving old and discredited trope that Pakistan is a State sponsor of terrorism and provides safe havens to Taliban. America is planning surgical anti- terrorist strikes against Pakistan, which in turn will be used to promote the narrative that the country isn’t doing enough to fight terrorism.
Some of these attacks might take place along CPEC’s transit routes in northern Pakistan in order to send clear message to China, though indirectly of course since reason for bombings will be that Taliban terrorists were there. From this orchestrated media military campaign America will then have manufactured plausible grounds for deploying its subsequent diplomatic economic approach to the hybrid war on CPEC by sanctioning Pakistan because of its support of Taliban.
America wants to continue diminishing international attractiveness of CPEC and if Chinese aren’t scared off by American drone strikes and Indian supported terrorist attacks threat of violating American sanctions might be enough to coerce them to give up their CPEC business plans. The most efficient way for America to influence, disrupt and ultimately control CPEC is for its hybrid war machinations to craft perception key word conducting business along the route is unsafe and costly.
Intensification of war on Afghanistan and spill over of RAW supported ISIS terrorists can be expected in near future as well as this factor setting off trip wire for justifying American drone strikes against Pakistan sanctioning Islamabad.Deteriorating and worsening circumstances in Baluchistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and FATA will put CPEC in deep trouble. Gilgit Baltistan being the only entry of CPEC from China to Pakistan will remain target of America and India. Pakistan will have to deploy its pull shots in region.
What’s needed to counter these plans is a strong reinforcement of Pak-Afghan border and political will of Pakistan to take down any aircraft whether manned or unmanned that violates its sovereign airspace.
Russia has developed state-of-the-art anti- drone technology that could be very useful to Pakistan Army . China could assist with radar support and other related means in detecting these units.Pakistan and China will have to have most modern sophisticated technology to effectively counter America- India nexus.
Behind the scenes aid and advice that Pakistan’s Russian and Chinese great power partners could provide it with will go a long way in protecting CPEC, and could predictably be on the agenda of Pakistani Foreign Minister’s upcoming visit to Russia and China.
Pakistan needs to highlight its credible defence capacities in warding off forthcoming American and Indian threats to CPEC it would greatly strengthen its position after crafting a multilateral strategy in conjunction with its multi- polar partners.
Chinese program of its connectivity via OBOR and hold of world economic market by 2035 is making America and India uncomfortable because China doesn’t want to indulge itself in any dispute by 2049. Economic stability of China and Pakistan through CPEC is direct threat to American and Indian economic and military might. Pakistan will continuously get benefit of CPEC because of Chinese economic design. CPEC has become second jugular vein of Pakistan. America believes that strong, independent and stable Pakistan will not fulfill American agenda in the region any more. Economically and politically stable Pakistan and China will mean failure of America -India nexus. Political and economic stability in Afghanistan is dire need of Pakistan, China and Afghanistan. This is what India and America don’t want. For the derailment of CPEC America and India now want political instability in Pakistan and Afghanistan which ultimately will lead to terrorism.
Elections in Afghanistan and Pakistan are uncertain because America and India do not want smooth sail of democratic system in Afghanistan so in Pakistan. Pakistan and Afghanistan will once again face terrorism to terrify China.Trump’s tweet against Pakistan reflects his agenda against CPEC.India is blowing trumpet.Pakistan, Russia and China are strengthening political and economic relationships. Russia after regaining its lost power of cold war time has decided to join Pakistan and China. This is the main reason of fire and fury of America and India against Pakistan and China. Central Asian States are going to be direct beneficiary of CPEC. America can overcome Afghan Taliban. Why it took 17 long years to vanish Taliban which still it could not? It means America is not here just to defeat and crush Taliban. It is here to control China and Pakistan. American mouth has been watering because of natural resources of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asian States since long. America is here to hold China of penetrating Central Asian States and Afghanistan. That is why any peace keeping effort for Afghanistan by Pakistan and China is sabotaged by America and India