Below article was published 44 years back, but the Iran monitors developments in Pakistan side of Balochistan very closely. In an interview Former shah of Iran said , in case Pakistan collapse they will take protective action , that is seize Pakistani BALOCHISTAN.
Daily Record, Ihursday, April 26, 1973 Belief in 'Crude Real if y' i:f ' Yi
By C L. Sulzberger
TEHERAN Iran today finds itself wedged between two of the world's tensest crisis areas. To the west lies Iraq, with which it is on very bad terms, and the festering Middle East, already riven by wars. To the east lies Pakistan, which shows signs of coming apart. Therefore Shah Mohammad Reza is implacably building up his national military establishment to achieve a capability of self-defense against anyone in non-nuclear war. '"That is my ultimate aim," he says. "Some people laughed when I started off this program. But now I estimate we are only about five years away from our goal." The big switch is substitution of self-reliance for dependence on outside aid. "We can't rely on foreign intervention to help us against aggression," the Shah comments. "After all. why should any country defend another that is unable to defend itself? One must make one's own struggle." The Shah no longer places faith in alliances. He says CENTO, which links Iran with Turkey, Pakistan and Britain plus an indirect American tie, "was never a reality. It was always just a club where people could talk pleasantly. It had no tangible value." Likewise, he holds no great brief for the U.S. bilateral accord arranged with President Eisenhower. Thrs guaranteed Iran against a Communist threat. But, as the Shah says, "The United States had the privilege of interpreting what 'Communist' meant, no matter what we called it. Moreover, it was not an automatic defense pledge. "Officially that accord still exists; it hasn't been denounced. But I don't really believe in pacts. I prefer to believe in crude reality and in the paramountcy of national interests. Our relations with America are the same with or without the pact because the United States cannot afford to see anything happen to Iran." police the world." The annual defense budget now approaches the $2-billion level and huge amounts of U.S supersonic aircraft, helicopters, cargo planes, anti-aircraft missiles and British tanks were on order. This trend was accelerated after the 1971 war between India and Pakistan. The Shah says: "We saw organized armies crossing international boundaries and nobody did anything about it. not even the United States, while the mass media for the most part applauded this illegality. I opposed Pakistan's military intervention in Bangladesh But the India-Pakistan war more than ever reinforced our resolve to strengthen Iran's defenses." The problems today facing Iran are seen as linked. Iraq is consistently hostile and encourages subversion among Arab groups along the Persian Gulf. Moreover, Baghdad Radio seeks to foment trouble among the Baluchis of both southeast Iran and southwest Pakistan. Iran never forgets that Iraq leans heavily on Moscow for support. The primordial problem, as the Shah sees it, is to prevent West Pakistan from wholly falling apart. He is urging India to help the shaky Pakistani Government control autonomist movements in the northwest frontier and Baluchistan provinces. He explains: "If Pakistan disintegrates another Vietnam situation could develop. We must see to it that Pakistan doesn't fall to pieces. This would produce a terrible mess, an Indochina situation of new and larger dimensions. I dread to think of it." And if it can. anyway, if Pakistan fell apart? "The least we could do in our own interest would be some kind of protective reaction in Baluchistan." What does that mean' Apparently to seize it before anyone else does. Another "crude reality " What he means, of course, is that Washington doesn't want Russian dynamism to explode into the Indian Ocean and that American industry cannot afford to risk seeing this land's oil reservoir cut off. That is the "crude reality" on which the Shah bets. I asked what had been the effect on this strategic concept of both the Nixon Doctrine and the new great power alignment. None, he said. He added: "I developed my own doctrine of a strong Iran fourteen years ago. Nixon understands that there is no other way for a nation to insure its protection than by itself. "As for the new power alignment: we don't mind it. We are sure you will never do a dirty deal behind our backs. Anyway, you can't afford to." The Shah says he has been insisting for years on heavy investment in Iran's military build-up even "against the better judgment of our good American friends who thought that with two air-borne divisions the United States could ITS sis Vv ate 'gates Another JT1 By ' 44 r'M Russell Baker The President could fire himself, of course, but that would mean he would have to go back to New York where he would constantly be running into Martha and John Mitchell 4. Nationwide television address. Advantages: Historically, whenever President Nixon has been in trouble and gone on nationwide TV to explain things, he has immediately been deluged by rising popularity polls. Drawback: Watergate is so complicated that not even President Nixon could explain it in less than 24 hours and there isn't that much prime time. Possible solution: Speak on an entirely different subject Possibilities denounce Jane Fonda, explain Earl Butz blame Supreme Court for "Last Tango in Paris." 5. Shock enemies off balance by meeting issue head-on Advantage: Technique worked successfully in the 1952 Checkers-speech resolution of the secret-campaign fund crisis and script needs only slight revision. For example-President appears on TV with Mrs. Nixon and King Timahoe. All very close to tears. The President says yes, he did it, but it was a small, well-meaning wrong and he did it only to save America from a greater wrong the election of Those Who. The President then offers to resign if cards and letters from TV audience favor it. Audience's rejection will not hurt him too cruelly, he says, because he will still have King Timahoe. Advantage: Americans will forgive a man anything if he seems to like dogs. Drawbacks: This gives tough guys he will have to deal with later Brezhnev, Pompidou, Chou En-lai a chance to look good by pointing out that they don't have to lean on dogs. 6. Amnesty. WASHINGTON The news here is that President Nixon is facing another crisis. Its name is Watergate. This is the moment when, according to his own account, he is at his best. When all about him are hot and panicky, the President has said, he is cool and calm. Afterwards when he has emerged from crisis into safety, he will experience terrible letdown, but now all his faculties are focused on th e crisis and he is at the top of his form, perhaps even exhilarated by the challenge of battle with the chance it affords him to prove his mettle. All this we know from his writings and interviews on the subject of Nixon and Crisis. Thus we can safely surmise that he is now weighing alternatives, applying his knowledge of human nature and politics to the great question: Wlrich decisive act will most effectively dispel the crisis? We cannot, of course, know the alternatives he is considering. But we do know his penchant for surprise, his football -enthusiast's belief in the crushing effectiveness of running the ball up the middle when the Democrats are deployed against the long pass. And so it is not too hard to guess at some of the more surprising courses of action he must be considering. Following are a few of these: 1. Saturation bombing of France. Advantages: This would meet the White House need for headlines strong enough to push Watergate off the front pages. It would also strengthen the President's popularity with voters, whose support for him has historically risen whenever he has bombed. Drawbacks: The President is fond of France; would hate to be hissed there on his next visit. Also, NATO treaty requires the United States to go to France's help in case of attack. This would put the President in the awkward position of having to bomb America. 2. Bombing South America. Advantage: This would circumvent the awkward legal problem created by bombing France. Drawback: United States newspaper editors never put Latin-American news on page one. 3. Firing a lot of people. Advantages: Presidents in trouble always score big with voters by firing men around them. This is because Americans believe Presidents are such good and sagacious men that if they get into trouble it can only be because bad men around them let them down or sold them out. Firing these men satisfies public yearning to believe in naivete of Presidents and pleases newspaper editors who become grateful for lovable old easy headlines like "President Cleans House." Drawbacks: President Nixon has not left himself anybody to fire. He has painstakingly built a Cabinet nobody has ever heard of and a White House staff designed to self-destruct under pressure. This doesn't leave anybody worth firing except David Eisenhower, General Thieu, Spiro Agnew and Billy Graham, who are not disposable. y V Letters From Our Readers v registered to vote and for the first time, there is somebody I want to see elected. She will be no Mayor Snyder, who, at one meeting, involved three hours of talk with his biggest contribution trying to convince me how great his vow was of never smoking or drinking. Well, la de da how'd that help York? Besides, it's been my misfortune to know others who, too, believe such a vow or abstinence makes them paragons of virtue and guaranteed candidates for the pearly gates. Their lack of concern for others is far more destructive. Ray's idea of "people power" appeals to me. It's been my contention for many years that one person gets the ball rolling, but there's got to be momentum to roll the ball down the hill. Her platform "The future is now" yes. "Imagination" touche. "Common sense" maybe that will start eliminating the competition. "Spirit" Amen. Elect Genevieve Ray for mayoress we need the feminine touch. ; . . Betty Simmons York Wants Good News, Too Editor, York Daily Record: I am sure there are always many good things that happen that seldom gets into the papers simply because it is not sensational enough. It is my belief that many people are hopeful for the day when this will all be changed possibly now is the time. I enjoy reading the Daily Record very much. We hope that your efforts to improve the paper will continue and that your efforts will be rewarded by more and more people reading it regularly. Robert E. Stover York For '.Mayoress Editor, York Daily Record: Genevieve Ray has got "it all together" well, what's needed for mayoress of York now, isn't that pretty? Mayoress. Twirl it around on your tongue like the sound of it? It was my good fortune to meet and talk with her several weeks ago:' For the first time in five years or more I "Ah, little spring flower, in spite of all the pollution, you made it agaihi shallow victory, shallow victory!"