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China-Pakistan water pincer against India: As part of CPEC, mega-dams are planned in Gilgit-Baltistan

By TOI Contributor | Updated: May 16, 2017, 10.55 AM IST

As China uses CPEC to turn Pakistan into a colonial outpost, its new dam projects in Gilgit promise to bring the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) under greater pressure.

By Brahma Chellaney 

China, which is working to re-engineer the trans-boundary flows of rivers originating inTibet, has taken its dam-building frenzy to Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan, which is part of Jammu & Kashmir. 

In a new challenge to India, which claims Gilgit-Baltistan as its own territory , China will fund and build two Indus mega-dams at a total cost of $27 billion, according to a MoU signed in Beijing during PM Nawaz Sharif 's visit. The MoU came the same day India announced its boycott of China's OBOR summit, saying no country “can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity“. 

Such is the mammoth size of the planned 7,100MW Bunji Dam and the 4,500MWBhasha Dam that India does not have a single dam measuring even onethird of Bunji in power generating capacity. In fact, the total installed hydropower capacity in India's part of J&K does not equal even the smaller of the two planned dams in Gilgit. Still,Pakistan disingenuously rails against India's modest hydropower projects in J&K and has sought fresh international arbitral tribunal proceedings against India over two projects, including the tiny 330MW Kishenganga. 

Even more striking is China's hypocrisy: It bellicosely protested, almost on a daily basis, the Dalai Lama's recent visit to Arunachal Pradesh, claiming it to be a “disputed territory“, although only Beijing disputes India's control over Arunachal. It also held out threats against India jointly exploring with Vietnam for offshore hydrocarbons in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone. Yet it has no compunctions about unveiling projects ­ under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) banner ­ in Pakistan-occupied Jammu & Kashmir, a UN-recognised disputed region. CPEC ­ OBOR's flagship programme, which will cement Pakistan's status as China's economic and security client has become a convenient cover for Beijing to include major strategic projects, stretching from Gilgit-Baltistan to Pakistan's Chinese-built Gwadar port.The Bunji and Bhasha dams are also claimed to be part of CPEC, which, by linking the maritime and overland “Silk Roads“ that China is creating, will gravely impinge on India's security . A grateful Pakistan has given China exclusive rights to run Gwadar port for the next 40 years. 

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The Bunji and Bhasha dams, which will largely benefit the dominant Punjab province, located downstream, are set to enlarge China's strategic footprint in the restive, Shia-majority Gilgit-Baltistan.For years, China has stationed several thousand of its own troops in GilgitBaltistan, ostensibly to protect its strategic projects there, including upgrading the Karakoram Highway and building a new railway and secret tunnels. CPEC has spurred increased concern that Gilgit-Baltistan, like Tibet, could get overwhelmed by the Chinese behemoth. 

Pakistani authorities are responding harshly to anti-CPEC protests in GilgitBaltistan, where the corridor is widely seen as opening the path to the region's enslavement by China. The fact that China rules Gilgit-Baltistan's Shaksgam, Raskam, Shimshal and Aghil valleys ­ ceded by Pakistan in 1963 to cement its strategic alliance with Beijing ­ has only added to the grassroots resistance against Chinese projects, which extend to mineral-resource extraction. 

Indeed, the Bunji and Bhasha Dam projects are already facing grassroots resistance because they are viewed locally as instruments to expropriate Gilgit-Baltistan's water resources for Punjab province. The Bhasha Dam alone will flood 200 square kilometres of Gilgit-Baltistan, displacing at least 28,000 residents and submerging some significant archaeological sites. 

As China uses CPEC to turn Pakistan into a colonial outpost, its new dam projects in Gilgit promise to bring the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) under greater pressure. The paradox here is that China does not accept even the concept of water sharing but its activities in Gilgit are likely to impinge on the world's most generous water-sharing treaty that remains a colossus among water pacts in the world. 

The 57-year-old IWT has survived mainly because of India's goodwill and full adherence, even as Pakistan violates the Shimla peace treaty and canons of civilised conduct. China's construction of dams in a disputed region is set to make Pakistan's water relationship with India murkier. The Chinese role will not only cast a pall on the IWT's future but it could also deal a mortal blow to the treaty


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